4
Ryka
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |