6
Ryzen
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/11/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 01/01/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 05/02/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |