7
Be Kozy
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength75%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-03-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/11/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/01/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 05/02/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 25/03/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 27/10/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |