4
Kiss Valentina
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 21/06/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |