Kozy Night
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-03-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/01/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |