5
Midnight Goddess
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |