1
Val's Twinstar
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 21/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |