IvyArcIvyArc
7

Varzuga

3yo Filly · 9-3

Vichy · Prix Munet Handicap · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12426/12C5C5 @ Deauville 29/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f101y Std 128C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 10/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Hvy 12010/03C5C5 @ Mont De Marsan 23/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 124C0 @ Moulins 09/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 1259/04C?C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 121C0 @ La Teste De Buch 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f102y Gd 12326/06C?4 @ Tarbes 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f102y Sft 1303 @ Vichy 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Hvy 1273/083projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Vichy31st1st0
2026-07-03Tarbes44th4th0
2026-06-26La Teste De Buch?5th5th0
2026-04-27Bordeaux Le Bouscat?1st1st0
2026-04-09Moulins?7th7th0
2026-03-23Mont De Marsan?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1223/0326/063/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 3-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20256th40/10%38%+0.38
29/01/202611th66/10%9%+0.09
10/03/202612th80/10%8%+0.08
23/03/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
09/04/20267th22/10%50%+0.50
27/04/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
26/06/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
03/07/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
03/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13