2
Le Verdon
2yo Filly · 9-2
Vichy · Prix De Marly-le-Roi Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Saint-Malo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +12.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |