4
Denia
8yo Mare · 9-5
Vichy · Prix De Moulins Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 14/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/01/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.44 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 18/05/2026 | 15th | 13/2 | 66% | 7% | -0.59 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |