11
Twarab
4yo Gelding · 8-12
Vichy · Prix De Moulins Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Les Sables | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 58% | -0.30 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |