2
Waitara
6yo Mare · 9-5
Vichy · Prix De Moulins Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Vittel | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Vittel | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.68 |
| 29/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |