2
Lohengreen
3yo Colt · 8-13
Vichy · Prix De Saint-christophe Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength62%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 1 | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 7% | -0.72 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |