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9

Al Za'ama

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 62

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Undistinguished in 3 Flat runs for Andrew Balding and pulled up on hurdle debut for new yard in July. Has had a breathing operation ahead of this return to the Flat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS9/1055 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS3/1254 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f23y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS30/044projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Uttoxeter4+2
2026-04-30Southwell48th6th+2
2025-12-03Kempton54th3rd+1
2025-10-09Bath510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/103/1230/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/202510th4/179%0%-0.79
03/12/20254th20/10%57%+0.57
30/04/20268th15/261%0%-0.61