6

Boy Named Sioux

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Southwell novice in November but hasn't gone on since, beating one at Southwell (1m) 3 weeks ago. Easy to oppose in a refitted hood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 23/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0755 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 69 · 5f182y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 68 par3/115OR 685 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m13y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 73 par2/045OR 734 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 7f36y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 70 par10/084OR 704 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f219y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m13y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 67 par31/085OR 67projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell58th7th+1
2026-08-22Redcar410th8th+2
2026-08-10Ayr49th7th+2
2026-07-17Wolverhampton47th5th+2
2026-04-02Southwell55th4th+1
2025-11-17Newcastle56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0717/1110/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength29%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20257th4/179%33%-0.46
09/09/20254th5/287%63%-0.24
03/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
17/11/20256th3/184%17%-0.68
02/04/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
17/07/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
10/08/20269th80/10%33%+0.33
22/08/202610th25/10%0%0.00
31/08/20268th16/116%13%-0.03