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12

Lady Delila

6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Back to form in refitted cheekpieces for new yard when fourth of 9 in handicap at Newcastle (1m) 19 days ago. Needs to back it up with headgear retained.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m5y Std 121 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 45 par2/126OR 456 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 42 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 42 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 42 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 42 par30/016OR 426 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 43 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 43 par6 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 46 par17/036OR 466 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 49 · 1m5y Std 125 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 48 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 48 par2/066OR 486 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 47 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 1m5y Std 127 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle64th4th0
2026-07-06Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-04-13Newcastle69th9th0
2026-03-17Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-03-05Newcastle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/125/032/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/12/20255th7/163%43%-0.20
06/01/20267th7/282%40%-0.42
30/01/20263rd13/266%78%+0.12
05/03/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
17/03/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
13/04/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
02/06/20265th9/153%64%+0.11
06/07/20268th12/137%42%+0.05
02/09/20264th12/137%63%+0.26