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5

The Anthony Gover

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on earlier promise to gain a first win in 11-runner handicap over C&D 2 weeks ago. Up 3 lb but scored cosily there and another bold showing is on the cards.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS17/0344 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m31y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS4/0535 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f36y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f15y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 63 par5/065OR 636 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 7f213y GF 129 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 61 · 1m2f50y Goo 131 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 61 par11/086OR 616 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m2f Gd 131 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 133 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 62 par7/096OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-08-27Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-08-11Nottingham63rd3rd0
2026-07-09Doncaster66th6th0
2026-06-05Musselburgh54th3rd+1
2026-05-18Wolverhampton56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0318/0511/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength89%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20263rd50/10%67%+0.67
15/04/20266th25/10%55%+0.55
04/05/202610th100/10%10%+0.10
18/05/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
05/06/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
09/07/20266th17/255%17%-0.39
11/08/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
27/08/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
07/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18