3
Fiefdom
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 69
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 2m 120y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 06/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |