IvyArcIvyArc
1

Kingdom Of Stars

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 2m 120y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

56%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Kempton winner (2m) for Tom Ward last summer. Underwhelming over hurdles for current yard but arrives on the back of a pair of solid efforts here last month, third of 7 in handicap (1¾m) on latter occasion. Not dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 76 · 2m56y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 76 par21/084OR 764 @ Kempton 15/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 2m102y Std 142 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 75 par3/105OR 754 @ Hereford 22/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m3f147y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Hereford 18/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m3f147y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS18/0344 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m7f196y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m7f218y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 74 par10/084OR 745 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m5f219y Std 142 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 1m5f219y Std 140 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 70 par26/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-08-18Wolverhampton55th5th0
2026-08-10Kempton48th7th+1
2026-06-13Chester44th3rd+1
2026-05-16Uttoxeter50
2026-04-06Hereford50

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0822/0210/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202510th11/142%31%-0.11
15/09/20253rd10/382%50%-0.32
03/10/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
22/02/20266th33/10%17%+0.17
18/03/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14
13/06/20264th33/10%63%+0.63
10/08/20268th40/10%36%+0.36
18/08/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12