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Last Trump

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 66

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 2m 120y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sir Percy gelding shaped encouragingly when a debut fifth in 11f maiden at Newbury in April. Has failed to build on it though, including on his handicap bow when fifth of 6 at Lingfield (13f, all-weather) 30 days ago. Steps up even further in trip now switched to tapeta.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0423 @ Salisbury 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m4f5y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS3/0533 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f201y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0635 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 1m5f Std 130 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 70 par22/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Lingfield55th5th0
2026-06-09Salisbury35th3rd+2
2026-05-03Salisbury34th2nd+2
2026-04-18Newbury25th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/043/059/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%

Delivery trend -30.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20265th80/10%43%+0.43
03/05/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
09/06/20265th28/10%56%+0.56
22/08/20265th10/382%20%-0.62