10

C'est Lui

2yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Nursery · 5f 21y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise when a debut sixth in maiden at Bath. Has failed to build on it, off 3 months (gelded) before coming in seventh of 11 on nursery bow at Windsor (6f, good to soft) 23 days ago. Makes tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0455 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0555 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 5f215y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS29/0556 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 58 · 6f12y Sft 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 58 par29/086OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor67th7th0
2026-05-29Brighton54th3rd+1
2026-05-18Redcar57th6th+1
2026-04-29Bath56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0418/0529/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength3%

Delivery trend -9.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20266th100/10%44%+0.44
18/05/20267th18/15%57%+0.52
29/05/20264th17/255%25%-0.30
29/08/20267th22/10%40%+0.40