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4

Calef

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Nursery · 5f 21y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden. Got back on track in a first-time visor (retained) on her nursery debut when fourth of 11 in nursery over C&D 2 weeks ago, still going well when not clear run early in straight. Weighted to go close off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0524 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0644 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0644 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 67 · 5f7y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 67 par11/074OR 674 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 67 · 5f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 67 par26/074OR 674 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 67 · 5f1y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 67 par24/084OR 676 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 64 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 64 par7/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh46th4th+2
2026-08-06Chepstow4+2
2026-07-26Pontefract44th2nd+2
2026-07-11Hamilton44th2nd+2
2026-06-22Catterick43rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0511/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20264th11/142%0%-0.42
03/06/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
22/06/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
11/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
26/07/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
24/08/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
07/09/20264th7/282%70%-0.12