9
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2yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 57
Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Nursery · 5f 21y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/08/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.18 |