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3

Tree Wizard

2yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64

Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Nursery · 5f 21y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort in a change of headgear (blinkered) when second in 5f maiden at Windsor in June on final start for Archie Watson. Not at his best in cheekpieces when in the frame at Brighton and Bath since. Makes tapeta/handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0536 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 12327/0562 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS6/0625 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 5f21y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0655 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 5f60y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 67 par23/085OR 675 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 5f160y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 66 par2/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath54th3rd+1
2026-08-23Brighton53rd2nd+1
2026-06-15Windsor52nd1st+1
2026-06-06Musselburgh26th1st+4
2026-05-27Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-05-04Bath39th5th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0527/056/0615/0623/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength74%

Delivery trend +9.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20269th7/163%11%-0.52
27/05/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
06/06/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
15/06/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65
23/08/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
02/09/20264th16/116%40%+0.24