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Aljoon

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73

Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much sharper when runner-up at Catterick second time up. Couldn't justify favouritism when 3 lengths third behind a couple of newcomers at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) latest. Can make a bold bid if recapturing his Catterick form on the back of a gelding operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0724 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f6y GF 13022/0744 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f1y Std 13313/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Lingfield43rd3rd0
2026-07-22Catterick42nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury210th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0722/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -30.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/07/202610th33/10%47%+0.47
22/07/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
13/08/20263rd1/195%80%-0.15