Baggie Boy
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 55
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 8.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-01-20 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 20/01/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/03/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |