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9

Captain Kinsella

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seems to have lost his way this season and he's hard to fancy kept to this trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 29/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 57 · 5f6y Std 127 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 57 par29/016OR 576 @ Lingfield 12/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 54 · 5f6y Std 135 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark17/02/2026 · OR 54 par17/026OR 546 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Sta 130 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 48 par12/036OR 486 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 48 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 46 · 5f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 46 par17/076OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 126 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 45 par27/086OR 45projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell69th9th0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-07-17Nottingham68th8th0
2026-03-16Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-03-12Newcastle64th4th0
2026-03-04Kempton67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/014/0317/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/01/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
12/02/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
17/02/20267th3/184%25%-0.59
04/03/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
12/03/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
16/03/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
17/07/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
31/07/20265th8/158%20%-0.38
27/08/20269th50/10%11%+0.11