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Cuban Fiesta

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on the drop to classified company for the first time when landing 6-runner event at Lingfield (7f, all-weather) in February on his final run for Denis Quinn. New headgear on and needs considering for new handler who has made a bright start.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 29/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m5y Std 136 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 58 par29/086OR 586 @ Southwell 29/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m13y Std 133 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Chelmsford City 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 54 · 1m Std 135 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 54 par16/106OR 546 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 134 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 54 par17/126OR 546 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 53 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 51 par24/016OR 516 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 51 · 6f Sta 131 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 50 par28/026OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-28Lingfield61st1st0
2026-02-04Kempton67th7th0
2026-01-24Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-01-03Southwell610th10th0
2025-12-17Lingfield66th6th0
2025-12-09Newcastle66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/089/1224/0128/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/202511th17/255%23%-0.32
29/09/202512th15/261%15%-0.45
16/10/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
09/12/20256th20/10%62%+0.62
17/12/20256th10/147%44%-0.03
03/01/202610th7/163%10%-0.53
24/01/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
04/02/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
28/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18