10

My Prerogative

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to show any ability and now makes handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 24/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0944 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0844 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m13y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/084projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Southwell48th6th+2
2026-08-03Nottingham45th3rd+2
2025-09-24Kempton48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/093/0816/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength2%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/09/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
03/08/20265th125/10%0%0.00
16/08/20268th200/10%13%+0.13