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Tortola

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest ex-Irish maiden. Sent off 9/2 but came in last of 8 on her yard debut in handicap over C&D 3 days ago. Clearly thought capable of better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m1f130y Sft 119 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 60 par11/0960OR 60C8 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 59 par16/0159OR 59C8 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m Std 122 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 56 par13/02C8OR 56BHA52 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 52 · 7f211y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 52 parBHA53 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m40y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 53 par15/0753OR 53BHA53 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 49 par18/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA537th6th+1
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA5313th12th+1
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA522nd1st+1
2026-02-13Dundalk?12th14th−2
2026-01-30Dundalk?7th9th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0930/0115/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -9.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
03/12/20253rd50/10%78%+0.78
16/01/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
30/01/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
13/02/202612th20/10%0%0.00
02/07/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
15/07/202613th9/276%0%-0.76
15/08/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
18/09/20268th9/276%0%-0.76