1
Based
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 45% | -0.40 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 18% | -0.66 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |