4
Distillation
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 52
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/11/2025 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |