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10

Nautical Sky

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up over 8.5f here on handicap debut for James Ferguson in March. Below that form since but much better signs on second run for new yard with keen-going sixth of 12 in handicap at this course (8.5f) 2 weeks ago. Interesting now back in trip in a first-time visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 08/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS8/0154 @ Wolverhampton 03/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f20y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f20y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS23/0256 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 52 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m31y Goo 132 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 52 par8/066OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 125 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 48 · 6f210y Goo 123 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 48 par24/086OR 486 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 46 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 46 par7/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-08-24Brighton67th7th0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-06-08Windsor65th5th0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-02-23Wolverhampton58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0124/0324/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/01/20269th80/10%0%0.00
03/02/20264th28/10%50%+0.50
23/02/20268th100/10%13%+0.13
24/03/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
08/06/20265th8/158%64%+0.06
07/07/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
24/08/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
07/09/20266th16/116%55%+0.39