6
Rain Cap
9yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 47
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Catterick | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |