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8

Spruces Due

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well beaten all 3 starts, too free in a first-time hood when last of 4 in novice at Doncaster (6f, good to firm) last time. Makes handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 10/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f20y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS10/0654 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS14/0644 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f2y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS1/084projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Doncaster44th2nd+2
2026-06-14Doncaster412th10th+2
2025-06-10Wolverhampton54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0614/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -12.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20254th40/10%25%+0.25
14/06/202612th300/10%0%0.00
01/08/20264th150/10%0%0.00