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American State

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 69

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner in February. Largely in good form since, posting a respectable fourth of 9 in handicap at Southwell (1m) 18 days ago. Not discounted back down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 66 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark17/02/2026 · OR 66 par17/025OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 68 par5/045OR 685 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 132 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m5y Std 132 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 72 par2/065OR 725 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 70 par7/075OR 705 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 69 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m14y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 70 par3/094OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell44th3rd+1
2026-07-21Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-06-10Kempton56th6th0
2026-06-02Newcastle510th10th0
2026-04-26Wetherby510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0226/047/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/02/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
20/03/20266th13/266%50%-0.16
05/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
26/04/202610th15/261%18%-0.42
02/06/202610th16/116%18%+0.02
10/06/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
07/07/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
21/07/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
03/09/20264th11/142%63%+0.20