IvyArcIvyArc
2

Drumstick

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 69

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Emphatic winner on just second run for new yard at Windsor (1¼m, good) in May. Took strong hold after 3 months off when last of 7 in handicap at Sandown (1¼m, good) last time. Needs to bounce back but is down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 15/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark15/04/2025 · OR 67 par15/045OR 675 @ Newbury 16/05/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 137 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 01/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 66 · 1m75y Goo 129 · beat its mark01/06/2025 · OR 66 par1/065OR 666 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 64 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Newbury 24/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 136 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 65 par24/075OR 655 @ Kempton 19/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m2f219y Sta 138 · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 64 par4 @ Newton Abbot 29/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS29/0946 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Sandown 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 70 · 1m1f209y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 70 par6/084OR 70projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Sandown47th6th+1
2026-05-04Windsor61st2nd−1
2025-09-29Newton Abbot48th7th+1
2025-08-19Kempton57th7th0
2025-07-24Newbury56th6th0
2025-07-09Kempton62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/049/0729/096/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20253rd3/184%78%-0.06
16/05/202513th17/255%0%-0.55
01/06/20256th11/142%58%+0.16
09/07/20252nd5/287%89%+0.02
24/07/20256th11/142%0%-0.42
19/08/20257th9/153%40%-0.13
29/09/20258th50/10%36%+0.36
04/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
06/08/20267th10/147%0%-0.47