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8

Espanita

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 67

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored twice over 7f here before bagging a third success of 2026 in 4-runner handicap at Lingfield (1m, all-weather) 9 days ago. This is tougher after a 3 lb rise but she's got to be respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 70 par2/045OR 705 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 7f Sta 131 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m75y Goo 128 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 68 par19/055OR 685 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m1f Goo 132 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 65 par6/075OR 655 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 63 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 66 par17/085OR 665 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 64 · 1m1y Std 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 64 par12/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield51st1st0
2026-09-03Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-08-17Wolverhampton56th6th0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-07-06Wolverhampton56th6th0
2026-06-09Carlisle59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/049/0617/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20266th10/1195%17%-0.79
04/05/20265th6/492%33%-0.59
19/05/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
09/06/20269th15/261%11%-0.49
06/07/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
31/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
17/08/20266th15/261%44%-0.16
03/09/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
12/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12