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Highland Olly

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 3-time turf winner (at up to 1m) in 2026. Back to form in refitted cheekpieces with third at Beverley but went freely up in trip when last of 17 in handicap at Doncaster (1¼m, good to firm) 10 days ago. Can race off an 11 lb lower mark here so got to be respected back down in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 73 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 73 par25/045OR 734 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m1f35y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 76 par4/064OR 765 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m208y Gd 142 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 76 · 7f96y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 76 par4/074OR 764 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 78 · 7f127y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 7f75y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par12/084OR 784 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 77 · 1m100y Hvy 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 77 · 1m2f43y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 77 par11/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster417th16th+1
2026-08-30Beverley43rd2nd+1
2026-08-12Beverley45th4th+1
2026-07-25Chester47th6th+1
2026-07-04Beverley41st0th+1
2026-06-22Musselburgh52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0422/0612/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
15/05/202615th10/147%33%-0.14
04/06/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
22/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
04/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
25/07/20267th3/184%14%-0.70
12/08/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
30/08/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
11/09/202617th40/10%0%0.00