9
Lili Marleen
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 58
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y
#7
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-30 | Dieppe | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength1%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 09/12/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 05/02/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/04/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |