10
Meritocratic
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 57
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 22/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |