3
The Hare Rail
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 1m 142y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |