Baron Wagstaff
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 54
Wolverhampton · Book Now At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap · 1m 4f 51y
#10
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Southwell | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |