Implied Volatility
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50
Wolverhampton · Book Now At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap · 1m 4f 51y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 8.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Redcar | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 01/08/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 16/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 16/08/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |