1
It's A Love Thing
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Wolverhampton · Book Now At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap · 1m 4f 51y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 20/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 06/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |