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2

Satyress

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Book Now At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving this summer upped to 1½m and she readily completed a four-timer in 12-runner apprentice handicap at Thirsk a week ago. Escapes a penalty here and another bold bid is anticipated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 27/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0656 @ Nottingham 18/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 52 · 1m2f50y Goo 125 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 29/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m2f42y Std 126 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 50 par29/086OR 505 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m3f39y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 49 par6 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m2f5y Goo 118 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 48 par8/066OR 486 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 47 · 1m4f23y Goo 127 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 49 · 1m4f15y Goo 133 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 49 par11/086OR 496 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m4f98y Std 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f8y Goo 138 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 54 par14/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk61st1st0
2026-09-03Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-11Hamilton61st1st0
2026-06-23Beverley61st1st0
2026-06-08Pontefract64th4th0
2025-09-09Carlisle56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/069/0911/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20258th100/10%30%+0.30
18/07/20254th28/10%63%+0.63
29/08/20257th10/147%25%-0.22
09/09/20256th20/10%38%+0.38
08/06/20264th6/168%70%+0.02
23/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
11/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
14/09/20261st11/893%100%+0.07