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Just Jump

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 62

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 6f 20y

#9

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored under the returning Marco Ghiani (1-1) at Windsor in June. Shaped well in defeat at Lingfield before refusing to race for the second time this season at Windsor latest. Connections presumably feel he's still well treated (often strong in betting) but remains a risky betting proposition.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 58 · 7f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 58 par10/1258OR 58BHA56 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 56 · 5f Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 57 par25/026OR 576 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 58 · 6f20y Std 128 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 58 · 6f Sta 133 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 58 par25/036OR 586 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f Sta 128 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 131 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 56 par22/066OR 565 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 56 · 5f34y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 62 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 62 par4/086OR 62projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Windsor60
2026-08-04Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-02Newbury55th4th+1
2026-06-22Windsor61st1st0
2026-05-23Windsor60
2026-04-08Kempton68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1213/0322/064/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20257th12/137%40%+0.03
17/12/20253rd10/147%82%+0.34
25/02/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
13/03/20267th9/276%33%-0.43
25/03/20265th10/382%60%-0.22
08/04/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
22/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
02/07/20265th9/488%43%-0.45
04/08/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06