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12

Nzuri

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 62

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 6f 20y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Solid start for new yard with in-frame finishes in sprint handicaps. Seemingly didn't benefit for cheekpieces at Bath (carried head awkwardly) prior to overcoming long odds to get off the mark at Windsor last time. Hit with a 7-lb rise for that improved effort and in a better race here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0954 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS4/0546 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 62 · 6f12y Goo 132 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 61 · 6f20y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 61 par16/065OR 615 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 59 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 5f GF 132 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 59 par14/076OR 595 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 57 · 5f160y Fm 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 55 · 6f12y GF 135 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 55 par17/086OR 55projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Windsor61st1st0
2026-07-31Bath55th4th+1
2026-07-14Leicester64th4th0
2026-07-09Newbury54th3rd+1
2026-06-16Wolverhampton57th6th+1
2026-05-18Windsor610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0918/0514/0717/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/202511th7/163%0%-0.63
18/04/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
04/05/20262nd150/10%90%+0.90
18/05/202610th25/10%18%+0.18
16/06/20267th20/10%33%+0.33
09/07/20264th80/10%73%+0.73
14/07/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
31/07/20265th15/261%20%-0.41
17/08/20261st40/10%100%+1.00