Portacloy
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 61
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 6f 20y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Ffos Las | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/09/2025 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 28/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |