The Caribbean
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 62
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 6f 20y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Southwell | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 06/12/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 20/02/2026 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |